The political events preceding the 2027 general elections are gradually taking shape. In recent days, there have been noticeable movements across the political space, including cross-carpeting, decamping, declarations of intent, internal consensus efforts, and the sales of nomination and expression of interest forms across various political parties. Although the real politicking is yet to fully commence, these early signals cannot be ignored, as they already hint at the intensity of what lies ahead.
These developments have also begun to reshape the political landscape in Oyo State. The recent defection of key political allies and the resignation of a prominent figure from the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) due to lingering leadership tussles, followed by their alignment with the All Peoples Movement (APM), further underscores the fluid nature of the state’s political environment. Members from parties such as the Accord Party, African Democratic Congress (ADC), and All Progressives Congress (APC) are also realigning their interests, adding more complexity to the unfolding political configuration.
Oyo State politics appears to be quite distinct from other southwestern states. While it was relatively easier for APC structures in Ogun and Lagos to converge on consensus candidates, Oyo presents a more fragmented picture. Not less than ten aspirants have already obtained the APC governorship nomination forms and have been screened ahead of the direct primary election, heightening internal competition within the party. Although a group of stakeholders had earlier attempted to rally support around Barr. Sarafadeen Alli as a consensus candidate, the move was resisted by other aspirants who described it as an imposition, insisting instead on a level playing field.
The resignation of the former Minister of Power, Oloye Adebayo Adelabu, to contest for the governorship ticket has further altered the political equation. His consistent advocacy for open primaries has added momentum to the internal debates within the party. Meanwhile, Senator Fatai Buhari, representing Oyo North Senatorial District, has introduced a new dimension by calling for the governorship seat to be zoned to the Oke-Ogun region. At this stage, every aspirant appears to have a justification for their ambition, backed by different political blocs, regional sentiments, and strategic alignments.
Turning back to the Governor’s camp, the newly adopted party of Governor Seyi Makinde’s allies and political associates must also learn from historical precedents such as Ogun State. In 2019, then-Governor Ibikunle Amosun attempted to install a successor through the African Democratic Congress (ADC)/APM structure but ultimately failed, highlighting the difficulty of transferring incumbency influence to a successor in a new political arrangement.
Aside from the fact that no incumbent governor has successfully installed a successor in Oyo State’s recent political history, candidates contesting under the All Peoples Movement (APM) will require significant effort to remain competitive. This is particularly important because the political goodwill that contributed to electoral strength in 2023 is no longer as transferable, given that the governor is currently in his second and final term.
The APM itself remains relatively new, and the electorate will need time to assess its structure, credibility, and ideological direction. This makes grassroots mobilisation, voter persuasion, and internal organisation even more critical for its candidates. It is therefore expected to be a keenly contested political battle and a real test of popularity, structure, and acceptance across the state. A few individuals are also still obtaining nomination forms under the African Democratic Congress (ADC), despite the indefinite postponement of the court case over its leadership crisis, which continues to cast uncertainty over the party’s future direction.
Ultimately, the unfolding realignments ahead of the 2027 general elections suggest that Oyo State is heading into a highly competitive and unpredictable political season. With shifting alliances, emerging platforms, internal party disputes, and renewed regional debates, the balance of power remains fluid. While parties continue to position themselves through consensus efforts, primaries, and defections, the true test will lie in their ability to sustain unity and convert early political movements into electoral strength when campaigns fully begin.
In the end, the coming months will determine which political structures are built on genuine grassroots support and which are driven by temporary convenience. Whether through direct primaries or negotiated arrangements, the capacity of each party to reflect the true will of its members and respond to evolving public sentiment will be decisive. Oyo State is therefore poised for a defining political season that will test loyalty, organisation, and popularity across all major political camps.
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